Howard Advance Returns

How to read this page — no walkthrough needed

1. Start with the six numbers below. They're already set to today's terms (200/agency weekly cap, base-case ramp) — this is the headline answer to "how do we get paid."
2. Read the amber box just under the numbers. It's the one caveat that changes the math most: the weekly cap may rise from 200 to 500 per agency heading into Open Enrollment. Click "500 (OEP ramp)" in the bar at the top of the page to see the six numbers recompute live — no need to touch anything else.
3. for the monthly cash-flow story: capital going out, cash coming back, and the outstanding balance at each point.
4. — this is the specific ask: when the confirmed $2.0M starting tranche runs out and how much more capital is needed at that point, at today's assumptions.
5. if the question is "what if the cap or the rate lands somewhere else" — every combination is pre-computed.
6. for the plain-language explanation of the payment order — Profundo's fee and interest, then Profundo's principal, before Howard's equity sees anything.

The sliders on the left are optional — set to defensible defaults already. Every figure here traces back to the companion Excel workbook (historical pilot data, reconciliation, and the full weekly/monthly schedules); this page is the summary view built from it.

Annualized IRR

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MOIC

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Payback

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Peak Capital Out

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Total Profit

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Peak Portfolio Exposure

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Caveat — weekly cap may change. Howard currently caps advances at 200 applications/agency/week. Leadership is considering raising this to 500/agency/week heading into Open Enrollment to match the confirmed 500/agency production target — which would raise both the capital required and the funder's deployable base proportionally. Use the chips above (or the slider) to compare.

All other figures on this page (fee %, rate %, funded share) are illustrative placeholders, not agreed terms — Facility A's actual return structure is still an open item with Profundo (Open Question Q-10 in the underlying workbook).
The $140 advance, 2-month base payment lag, and 20-agency roster are otherwise consistent with the Howard Advance capital-raise workbook.

Monthly cash flow — Profundo's book

Capital out (new advances funded) vs. cash in (fee + interest + principal recovered). This is the series the IRR is struck on.

Cumulative net cash — Profundo's book

Running total. The trough is the most capital Profundo is ever out of pocket; the crossing back to $0 is payback.

Advance balance outstanding — Profundo's exposure

Unrecovered principal on Profundo's funded share at each month end.

Portfolio activity

Applications funded (advanced) per month, and agencies onboarded (cumulative), across the full 20-agency roster.

Facility A — the initial $2M tranche

Total program capital outstanding (Profundo's funded share plus Howard's subordinated share combined — the same "Outstanding Capital Exposure" the underlying workbook tracks), checked against the confirmed $2.0M starting tranche (dashed line). Where the line crosses above it, that's additional capital — from either party — needed beyond the initial tranche to keep funding advances at this pace.

Two-way sensitivity — Annualized IRR

Rows: weekly cap per agency. Columns: annualized rate on outstanding balance. Outlined cell is the live scenario.

How this model works

Origination. 20 agencies onboard in staggered cohorts (pace-dependent) and ramp their weekly written volume toward the confirmed 500/agency target over several weeks. Each agency's advanced volume is capped weekly at the slider value, applied per-agency — so raising the cap doesn't help until an agency's eligible volume already exceeds the old cap.

Deployment. Every advanced application draws $140. Profundo funds its selected share of each week's gross advance; Howard funds the rest.

Recovery. Each month's advances become collectible starting after the payment lag, spread over 6 months, and decayed by (1−monthly churn)^k in recovery-month k — the same methodology used in the underlying capital-raise workbook, generalized to a live formula.

Profundo's return & seniority. An origination fee on the amount funded (paid at funding), plus an annualized rate on Profundo's own outstanding balance, plus principal — paid in that priority order out of each month's collected carrier credits. Profundo's principal is repaid before Howard's subordinated equity sees any return of its own capital, mirroring the seniority described in the GAIS/AOBG deck. Because roughly 16-18% of every dollar advanced is never collected (member churn), this structure matters: Howard's equity share absorbs that loss first, and only if total collections ever fell short of Profundo's own funded amount would Profundo's principal be impaired. IRR is struck monthly on Profundo's net cash flow over a 14-month horizon and annualized.

Built on the Howard Advance capital-raise workbook (Phase 1 pilot reconciliation + Phase 3 Base/Conservative/High-Growth scenarios). Figures here are a simplified, funder-facing lens on that model — the workbook remains the source of record for the full weekly/monthly schedules.